Friday, June 5, 2015

Population Growth in Orlando and Urban Sprawl

Forces driving up Real Estate Prices in the 'Fertile Crescent'

There are several forces driving up Real Estate prices in the 'Fertile Crescent' of Winter Garden, Ocoee, Apopka, and Mt. Dora.  Population growth in Central Florida for one, and the advent of urban sprawl is another.  The economy is slowly recovering from the 'Great Recession', and the government is being careful to fan the flames of financing and development that is driving recovery. 

Population Growth in Orlando

All of Florida is growing at a fast pace just like California was 25 years ago. 

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Think of Orlando as a giant volcano of new home buyers that have to purchase further and further from town center as Urban sprawl slowly creeps outward like molten lava.  And in it's path, all the unused areas of town have their trees torn down and development takes it's place.



Winter Garden and Ocoee have already begun to experience urban sprawl. From there it will have no where to go but Apopka and Mt. Dora.  A similar lava flow of urban sprawl is flowing though Clermont and into Minneola too.  Both flows will meet up in Tavares in the next 15 years.


That makes Winter Garden and Ocoee current gold mines (where you can buy low and sell high in a few short years), Apopka and Clermont are the immediate future gold mines, and Mt. Dora and Minneola will be after that, with Tavares being the Mother Load of real estate fortune making. 


By Gold Mine of course, I mean real estate that is bound to go up as the supply goes down and demand increases.  They are the cities on the edge of the current urban sprawl.  Just beyond it, where the prices are still low.  Buy low and sell high is how you mine for gold in them there hills!
Projected population growth in Apopka through 2030
Apopka is expected to grow exponentially in the next 15 years.  As unused land gets gobbled up, prices will rise correspondingly.

Approaching Urban Sprawl
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If you were to fly over the Ocoee/Apopka area, you would immediately see that part of Ocoee is covered by the Greater Orlando Urban sprawl.  Meaning, there is no unused land left. 


In the next 5 to 10 years it is bound to completely cover Apopka and even Mt. Dora.  That means that the supply of relatively cheap unused land will dwindle and eventually disappear.  As that happens, the housing prices will rise accordingly.

Dwindling Supply and Rising Demand

PicturePictureThe Laws of Supply and Demand dictate that the advent of Urban Sprawl in Apopka with make all Real Estate prices skyrocket. 

Apopka is now the fastest growing city in Orange County.  That ought to tell you where the prices are going to go up next very quickly.  Like in the next five years. 


City Government is pushing with incentives for development

Another force that is going to drive up home prices in Apopka is that the City of Apopka is currently trying to upgrade their image as a community and have started working on some development projects in South Apopka to that end.

Just look at all the new business development around Emmerson Park.  This area will be doing what Clermont has been doing for the last five years.  Apopka, especially South Apopka will be a whole new city in 5 years.  Homes that were surrounded by unused land will find themselves suddenly around the corner from the grocery store.

Local Rental Companies are buying up property at the current low prices

And thirdly, the short term situation is that there are companies here buying up property for rentals.  We noticed when we tried to buy our home that if you didn't put a bid in the same day a good home came on the market the next day it would be gone.  This happened to us over and over until we learned to pounce on the house we wanted with a fury.


I can't over emphasize what a great investment Apopka is right now, and the urgency of acting quickly when you find what you want.

I've seen it happen before


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I've seen this happen in California where I grew up.  People bought homes for $16,000 in the 1960's, and now they are worth $500k to $1 million. 

The House I bought for $230K will be easily worth $400k in a very short time.  In fact, I'm banking on it.

And I think you should too.





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 Emerson Park, Apopka" at: